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The future as a dynamics coming from the past

July 5, 2011

In the historical perspective, the spiral development of the systems leads to the idea of recurrence, of resumption of its statuses over time. The history’s lessons give the chance of avoiding the risk of repeating the mistakes (Cost Action 340), although „there is often a real gap between the old work’s genre or register and its current resumption” (Edgar Papu „Ideea de în veacul nostru”, Secolul 20, nr.10-11-12, 1971). Inversions of the relative mutual position of concepts, values and precepts considered over time may indeed occur on the future. For example, a transport system is today approached according to a sustainable mobility policy, which differs from the model in the past based on cheap energy consumption and without paying attention to the polluting emissions. For instance, a new evolution of the rail transport system will be accomplished on other grounds and will have other paradigms, as well as another relative position to the road transport.

In terms of the time flow, there is a blend of the fibres (in term of fibred space theory) symbolizing the evolution of the problems specific to a certain system, on the one hand, and of their abstraction models and theories, on the other hand. These two fibres are not synchronous, getting ahead of one another alternatively. For example, the problems in transports and their paradigms were quite simple about 40 years ago, while there were much more advanced theories and models that could be modelled, such as operational research, system theory and fuzzy set theory etc.

At present, the transport systems and their paradigms are much more advanced and sophisticated, complex and refined, but the theories, models and methods have not evolved to the same extent, due to the lack of a significant demand for them. The users are no longer as creative, because they have IT-based “black boxes’ at hand, which makes the users utilize them (if so) without trying to verify whether they are appropriate to the respective problems.  Thus, the users tend to become digital agents in their turn with inputs and outputs, and like robots they automatically use the IT “objects”. Over time, the gap between this logistic world “stuck in IT” and the problems in the logistic reality (including transports) will widen, which will trigger a new acceleration of the evolution of theories, methods and models.

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